- Revenue is jobs × average job. Profit is what is left after job costs and overhead. Change one input at a time to see which one moves your year most.
- Seasons do not change the yearly total here, they change which months lose money. That is a cash problem to plan for, not a reason to panic in February.
- Your break-even is overhead ÷ gross profit per job. Know that number of jobs a month by heart.
How the forecast works
The forecast uses five numbers you already know and one shape for your year:
| Step | Math |
|---|---|
| Jobs in a normal month | Jobs in an average week × 52 ÷ 12 |
| Jobs in each month | Jobs in a normal month × that month's season number ÷ 100 |
| Revenue | Jobs × average job |
| Gross profit | Revenue × (100% − job cost %) |
| Net profit | Gross profit − monthly overhead |
| Estimates to send | Jobs ÷ close rate |
| Break-even | Monthly overhead ÷ gross profit per job |
The season numbers are scaled so the twelve months average 100. That way "jobs in an average week" always means the same thing, and the season only moves work from slow months to busy ones.
Where to find each number
- Jobs in an average week. Count last year's invoices and divide by 52. If you are new, use what you can realistically book and do in a week, then lower it.
- Average job. Last year's revenue ÷ the number of invoices. Use the average, not the job you wish you had more of.
- Close rate. Jobs won ÷ estimates sent over the same months. If you do not track it, count the last 20 estimates.
- Job cost. Everything you spend because a job happened: materials, crew pay and payroll taxes for the hours on the job, dump fees, rentals, fuel to and from. As a percent of the price.
- Overhead. What you pay every month whether you work or not: truck payment, insurance, phone, software, rent, accounting, marketing. Add your own pay if you want the net to mean profit after you are paid.
If you do not know a number, put in your best guess and change it later. The forecast is a planning sheet, not a tax return. The profit margin calculator and the break-even calculator help with the job cost and overhead numbers.
Setting your busy and slow months
Most trades are seasonal. Lawn care and exterior work peak in the warm months, snow and heating work in the cold ones, and some trades see two peaks. The tool has three example shapes to start from. They are examples, not data for your trade or your area, and the page labels them that way.
The better way is to use your own year. Open "Set each month yourself" and put each month's share of a normal month: if last July was half again as busy as a normal month, put 150; if January was half as busy, put 50. The quickest source is last year's revenue by month from your invoices or accounting software: divide each month by the monthly average and multiply by 100.
A worked example
The tool's starting numbers: 8 jobs in an average week, a $450 average job, a 40% close rate, 45% job cost and $6,000 overhead a month.
| Line | Year |
|---|---|
| Jobs | 8 × 52 = 416 |
| Revenue | 416 × $450 = $187,200 |
| Gross profit | $187,200 × 55% = $102,960 |
| Overhead | $6,000 × 12 = $72,000 |
| Net profit | $102,960 − $72,000 = $30,960, a 16.5% net margin |
| Break-even | $6,000 ÷ ($450 × 55%) = 24.2 jobs a month |
| Estimates to send | 416 ÷ 40% = 1,040, about 20 a week |
With "Even all year" every month makes $2,580. Switch to the summer example and the year is the same $30,960, but January brings in about $6,292 and July about $23,597. January, February, November and December now lose money, January the most at about $2,539. Nothing about the business changed; the cash just arrives in different months.
What moves the forecast most
Change one input at a time and watch the net profit. In most trade businesses the levers are:
| Lever | What it takes | Where Koira helps |
|---|---|---|
| Close rate | Fast estimates, a follow-up on every open quote, options at three prices | Bid follow-ups and estimates |
| Average job | Priced from your real costs, add-ons offered every time | Labor rate calculator |
| Slow months | Maintenance plans and off-season services booked ahead | Maintenance plans |
| Jobs a week | More leads from your area: reviews, a website that converts, neighbors of jobs you already did | Reviews and neighbor postcards |
| Job cost | Tighter estimates of hours and materials, less driving between jobs | Routes |
Raising the close rate does not change revenue in this tool, because revenue comes from jobs done. It lowers the estimates you need to send for the same jobs. That is time back every week.
A forecast is not your books
This is a planning tool. It does not know about taxes, loan payments, equipment purchases or customers who pay late. Real cash arrives when invoices are paid, not when jobs are done. The SBA's guide to managing your finances covers cash flow projections and financial statements in more depth. For a loan application or taxes, take the CSV to your accountant.
Last checked October 9, 2026.